道德易经之投资组合

老子曰：道生一，一生二，二生三，三生万物。

老子曰：人法地，地法天，天法道，道法自然。

道生一。道为何物？道法自然，IGE是也。

易经亦有类此之语：太极生两仪。两仪生四象。四象生八卦。

一生二。二为何物？天之道：损有馀而补不足。人之道则不然：损不足以奉有馀。此两者，同出而异名。利益乃国家之根本。国家法天地之道：暂用EDV代之。损不足以奉有馀者，莫过于金融机构。用XLF代人之道准也。

三生万物。三为何物？老子曰：我有三宝，持而保之。一曰慈，二曰俭，三曰不敢为天下先。

慈者，父母也，衣食也。供衣食者，XRT是也。

俭者，陋室也。君子以俭德避难。能避难处，XHB是也。

不敢为天下先者，承先启后也。能承先启后者，IGV是也。

饶旭东/CHRISRAO

Software ETF

The Software business is a good business. IGV is the software ETF. It is not popular among the traders or investors yet.

One of the problems is that this ETF does not include Google, which is an internet company. Another important software company IBM is not a component of IGV. IBM is becoming conglomerate for the information technology just as GE is the conglomerate for the industrial technology.

It is now trading at $35 per share. Its low was around $20/share in October 2002. Its high of $55/share was registered in October 2007. So now it trades almost right in the mid-point over the last eight years. Even if the next eight years are the same as the past eight years, it is still a good investment now.

Software is the foundation of modern information society. The human society has grown out of the food/shelter-constrained stage, like other animals. The food/shelter industries can be represented by XRT/XHB, which are discussed elsewhere. Besides food/shelter, software is the most critical stage for the advancement of human society. Without software, the human beings can only behave on the levels as individuals. With software, human beings can behave as the new level of societal beings. Just as cells are the building blocks of biological beings. Human beings can be the building blocks of societal beings, with the development of software. Human interactions can be structured and organized as the software-interactions.

There are several major growth trends in the software industry.

(1) Software is becoming the core of information technology. Oracle's purchase of Sun Microsystems is one example in this trend. It is possible for some other software companies to prey on other complementary hardware or service companies.

(2) Software is becoming ubiquitous. Software is used in almost in every industry. Business management is becoming to manage and operate software.

(3) Software is becoming the new utility. Human lives are depending on water and electric utilities, especially on urban cities. Water utility is to manage the pipeline networks for delivering water. Electric utility is to manage the copper-wire networks for delivering electricity. Now the software utility is to manage the communications networks for delivering information.

(4) Software is the depository form of human knowledge. Gold is one depository form for wealth. As a depository form for human knowledge, software will be there for a long time. All kinds of business processes, art and engineering designs are organized as software systems.

(5) Software is the DNA for human society. DNA is the software for biological growth. Software is the DNA for societal growth. Software actually exists long before computers. Before computers, there are stories, words, laws, and many types of physical media for storing and distributing information. All these kinds of media are parts of information. When the information is organized in structural forms used by governments, businesses or individuals, it needs software.

Currently, the software ETF contains 40 components, which are updated semi-annually in Jun and December.

周易。小畜。9

今天得小畜卦。好像是预料之中的事。当然，如果事情能在预料之中，那未来就是在预知之中。大家很容易想到过去是在已知之内。如果将来也在预知之中，那么时间对人类来讲就成为了美对称之美。其实，即使是过去的事情，大家也未必知其全貌。将来的事情，总可以知道一个大概。在这个意义上时间还是具备对称之美。

扬善能控制其耳朵之上下微动。我已经不能轻易做到这样了。但是如果我闭目养神，全神贯注在控制我耳朵之上下微动，还是偶尔可以做到的。

昨天看KERA电视，偶尔听到美国前国务卿舒尔茨讲到关于领袖的意志。如果领袖们认为事情可以做到，大家又都照他们说的去做，事情就真的可以做到。如果领袖认为事情不能做到，大家不会去做，事情就真的没有做到。

想到这些，觉得人的意志和未来有某种联系。所以现在和将来是关联的。那么在人类出现以前，是什么意志在左右过去和未来的关系呢？人类有时何时开始继承这种可以左右过去和未来的意志呢？

道德经讲：人法地，地法天，天法道，道法自然。
道德经说：道生一，一生二，二生三，三生万物。

如果人类果真照老子所说的去做，也许就真的可以做到的。


《易經》 第九卦 小畜 風天小畜 巽上乾下

小畜，亨。密云不雨，自我西郊。
《彖》曰：小畜，柔得位而上下應之，曰小畜。健而巽，剛中而志行，乃亨。「密云不雨」，尚往也。「自我西郊」，施未行也。
《象》曰：風行天上，小畜。君子以懿文德。
初九：復自道，何其咎？吉。
《象》曰：「復自道」，其義吉也。
九二：牽復，吉。
《象》曰：「牽復」在中，亦不自失也。
九三：輿說輻，夫妻反目。
《象》曰：「夫妻反目」，不能正室也。
六四：有孚，血去惕出，無咎。
《象》曰：「有孚」「惕出」，上合志也。
九五：有孚攣如，富以其鄰。
《象》曰：「有孚攣如」，不獨富也。
上九：既雨既處，尚德載，婦貞厲。月几望，君子征凶。
《象》曰：「既雨既處」，德積載也。「君子征凶」，有所疑也。

密云不雨自我西郊是说云自西向东（西风）。这与中国农业气象谚语：云朝东两边空；云朝西戴蓑衣几乎是一样的。

与小畜的一阴爻和五阳爻组合类似的卦还有七个，共八个卦。依照阴爻的位置从下往上，这八个卦是：姤，同人，履，小畜，大有，夬。这八个卦很值得研究。

阴爻居初六位置的是姤卦。姤。女壮。勿用取女。姤就是偶遇的意识。女子过于强壮，不能娶为妻子。这是写处于社会底层的风尘女子卦。或写地下水的流动情形。

阴爻居六二位置的是同人。同人。同人于野。亨。利涉大川。利君子贞。同人于荒郊野外便亨通。利于男人贞占。这是写有一定社会地位的风流女子。有时能成为男人的红颜知己。这样的风流女子可以帮助男人成就事业。或写在春暖花开的日子里，河水肤浅，男女在河水中嬉笑的情形。

阴爻居六三位置的是履卦。履。履虎尾。不咥人。亨。跟着老虎行走，没有被吃掉，是好事。这是写社会中有一定作为的母老虎。跟着这样的母老虎，只能谨小慎微地做事。有些男人在这种时候也会狐假虎威地为自己制造机会。

阴爻居六四位置的是小畜。小畜，亨。密云不雨，自我西郊。这是写已有建树的女子，已经爬到了一人之下，万人之上的高位。密云不雨。这种时候，这样的女子可能把社会搞得乌烟瘴气，只能做到小畜。

阴爻居六五位置的是大有。大有。元亨。这是写女子已有元德。当上王位。社会上一片兴旺发达的景象。

阴爻居上六位置的是夬卦。夬。扬于王庭，孚号有厉。告自邑，不利即戎，利有攸往。这是写女子已经到了至高无上的顶峰。就像河水上涨，已经到了没顶决堤的时候。灾难就在眼前。这是写战争的前夜的情形。

易经。谦卦。15

今天中午彭来求卦。用六铜钱为其卜得谦卦。告其谦是好卦。只要自始至终保持谦虚就有亨通。彭得谦卦后很满意。言其已经如此做了，而且要继续这样做。

道德经言：道生一，一生二，二生三，三生万物。所以六个铜钱当中，其中一个为黄色实心铜钱，其中两个为白色空心银钱，其中三个为黄色空心铜钱。花穗面为阴，其背面为阳。阴多者为阴爻，阳多者为阳爻，均多者则无爻；全阴者为老阴，全阳者为老阳，阴阳老者为变爻。我坐北朝南。彭面北落坐。如此用六个铜钱卜得谦卦。

我画爻时是自下而上。即自北向南画爻。所以我看到的是谦卦。摇爻者看到我所画之爻是先上后下，即先北后南。所以摇爻者是当事者；我画爻则是旁观者。俗话常言：当局者迷旁观者清，大概说的就是这个意思。

谦卦 地中有山 坤上艮下
谦亨 君子有终
初六 谦谦君子 用涉大川 吉
六二 鸣谦 贞吉
九三 劳谦 君子有终 吉
六四 无不利 撝谦
六五 不富以其邻 利用侵伐 无不利
上六 鸣谦 利用行师 征邑国

易經。鼎。50

《易經》 第五十卦 鼎 火風鼎 離上巽下

鼎，元吉，亨。
《彖》曰：鼎，象也。以木巽火，亨飪也。聖人亨以享上帝，而大亨以養聖賢。巽而耳目聰明，柔進而上行，得中而應乎剛，是以元亨。
《象》曰：木上有火，鼎。君子以正位凝命。

鼎为古代烹煮用的器物。甲骨文中有鼎字。鼎者，三足两耳，和五味之宝器也。常言三足鼎立出于此意。古谚有民以食为天。易经初期作者从卦象中想到鼎，再从鼎联想到民得其食。饱食终日，才能无所用心。民心稳定则天下太平。所以，鼎元吉亨。

初六：鼎顛趾，利出否，得妾以其子，無咎。
《象》曰：「鼎顛趾」，未悖也。「利出否」，以從貴也。

把鼎颠倒过来，鼎趾朝天，有利于清洗出鼎内的残余旧食。这样做，有如得新鼎，可以和出五味之新鲜美食。妾在妻之后。为了生儿子，迎娶新妾，这样做，无咎。

九二：鼎有實，我仇有疾，不我能即，吉。
《象》曰：「鼎有實」，慎所之也。「我仇有疾」，終無尤也。

鼎内有充实的食物。即使我仇敌有坏心思，也不能加害于我。这样吉利。现代人说的家中有粮心里不慌，就是这个意思。 成语疾恶如仇就保留了这些字的本义。疾：憎恨；恶：指坏人坏事。疾恶如仇就是：憎恨坏人坏事就象憎恨仇人一样。

九三：鼎耳革，其行塞，雉膏不食，方雨，虧悔，終吉。
《象》曰：「鼎耳革」，失其義也。

鼎有三足两耳。鼎耳掉了，鼎端不起来了，鼎内的鸡汤到不出来了，突然下了一场雨，把鸡汤淋了。真是又吃亏又后悔。但是最终会有吉祥。

九四：鼎折足，覆公餗，其形渥，凶。
《象》曰：「覆公餗」，信如何也。

鼎足折断了，倾覆了王公的美味佳肴，弄得一地粘糊糊的东西。这样有凶险。到这里为止，以上易经的鼎讲得是用来煮饭做菜用的鼎。以下讲的是用来著作法律条文的鼎。

六五：鼎黃耳金鉉，利貞。
《象》曰：「鼎黃耳」，中以為實也。

铉本为横贯鼎两耳以举鼎的木棍。铉或以金属如铜做成，用以提鼎两耳。鼎两耳涂以黄色，木铉改为铜铉。这样做很好，但要注意保持贞洁朴素。这是用来记录法律条文的黄耳金铉鼎，所以要用黄色加以修饰。

上九：鼎玉鉉，大吉，無不利。
《象》曰：玉鉉在上，剛柔節也。

在木铉或铜铉上镶有宝玉，使鼎显得更加珍贵。这样做将会大吉大利。鼎文加上玉铉的衬托，使得鼎文的法律效果更加突出。

[今之易] 易经借用鼎说明了民以食为天和国以法为准的道理。老百姓肚子饱了，再加上国家法律的有效实施，国家的鼎盛就有了。

Minimalism & Luxury

Minimalism is defined as the use of the fewest and barest essentials or elements, as in the arts, literature, or design. Luxury is defined as something that is an indulgence rather than a necessity. If you translate minimalism and luxury into economic terms, they become words associated with needs and wants. So it is obvious, minimalism is the minimal need while luxury is the maximal want.

Many people might not want to associate themselves with neither minimalism nor luxury because they might consider themselves moderate. I believe people are normally distributed along the entire spectrum ranging from minimalism to luxury.

What I really interested in is if the distance between minimalist and the luxury is constant over the long history of time. In other words, if the society or the civilization has progressed over the human history, the distance between minimalist and luxury has increased as a function of the development of civilization. It is my first expectation that the distance over the past few decades has widened very much between the rich and poor and within the poorest and richest groups.

It is obvious that luxury is a relative term. Some consumer products might be considered as the essential needs to the rich. The same products can be considered as luxury items to the poor. So it is more interesting to think about the minimalism lifestyle and the luxury lifestyle for the consumers with the same income level. For example, for the average income Americans, what is the distance between the minimalism and luxury consumptions?

In the other day, I was thinking about the modern society as a consumer society. The entire economy is mostly consumer economy. In the United States, the consumer spending is about 70% of the total GDP. So if we can understand the consumer behavior in the spectrum defined between minimalism and luxury, we can almost figure out the economic behavior of the entire society.

Again, let’s use the average American as an example. If the moderate are living in the balanced lifestyle with a balanced income and spending, then the minimalism lifestyle will produce savors while the luxury lifestyle will produce interest-payers.

The capitalistic society depends almost entirely on the increasing number of interest-paying consumers. In the past few years, people are defaulting on their mortgage loans and other consumer loans. This has produced huge problems for banks and other financial institutions because banks and insurance companies are the main tools for capitalists to exploit the interest-paying consumers.

Let’s use residential housing as an example. The average price of a residential home is about $200,000. Let’s assume the mortgage interest rate is 6.3% for a 30-year loan. The annual mortgage payment is $15,000. The property tax rate, using Texas as an example, is usually around 2.5%. That is about $5,000 per year. The total payment between mortgage and property taxes is $20,000. For the entire working 30-years, the total payments would amount to about $600, 0000. That is exactly three times of the original home purchase price. So basically the banks (which collect mortgage payments) and the local government (which collects the property taxes) have made a handsome $400,000 out from the average Texan.

CHRISRAO/饶旭东

衣食住行

人民生活的日常需要归纳为衣食住行。从网上的资料来看，大部分网民将衣食住行的出处归功于孙中山先生。据说孙中山在《民生主义》第三讲中提到：大家都能各尽各的义务，大家自然可以得衣食住行的四种需要。我想将生活必需品归结为衣食住行可能比孙中山先生要早得多。这一点毋需深究。思来想去，生活必须品不外乎衣食住行。

很多人将现代社会说成是消费社会。将普通老百姓说成是消费者。在美国消费者的花销占总GDP的70%。中国社会的消费水平还比较低。估计占老百姓的消费量占总中国GDP的三分之一左右。中国消费者的消费量在过去十年里增长较快。估计三十到五十年的时间内会赶上美国。

从投资的角度看消费品是一个增长型行业。将来三十年会有良好的回报。如果投资上市公司的股票应该是以下这些行业。

第一是衣。其实衣是日常用品的代名词。我认为最好的代表是XRT。XRT代表的各种商店。这些商店卖的都是消费品。这个ETF比较理想。它包括五十个上市商店公司。

第二是食。我认为较好的代表是PBJ。PBJ代表的是食品制造商，饮料制造公司，旅店饭馆，和食品商店。其实PBJ并不是很理想。在没有其它成功的ETF出来之前暂时用它来代表。

第三是住。我认为最理想的是XHB。它主要代表的是居民房建造公司。有时XHB也包括与房建有关的家具制造公司，家具销售公司，建筑材料制造公司，和建筑材料销售公司等。

第四是行。这个行的定义时大时小。小范围的行只包括家用汽车。开车为行。那么乘飞机是否为行？开车乘飞机为行。那么旅游是否为行？所以行的范围可大可小。但是仔细想来，人民消费的表面上是汽车飞机，可实质上消费的是金属。无论是开的车，还是乘坐的飞机，都是用各种金属或非金属材料做成的。要金属就要开矿，就要挖煤，就要金银铜铁锡。所以行所消耗的是金属材料。总而言之，XME是最好的消耗代表。它代表的是金属材料和矿产公司。

以上的ETF所代表的都是消费品制造公司或销售商店。

Heping Pan

I googled for swing trading strategies. A scholarly paper related to swingtum (swing-momentum) came up and caught my attention. Swingtum means the combination of swing trading and momentum trading strategies. Then a name Heping Pan came up. Following the links, I was in Australia very soon. But the web page in Australia stated that Heping Pan was on leave.

I tried the Chinese name (guessed at first, but the first guess was right). Then I found out that he formed several organizations at verious Chinese universities related to Swingtum. Further researches about swingtum indicated that he was more interested in presentations than actual trading strategies.

He might reside in China now. He has prefessorship at two Chinese Universities. One is related to financial and the other is related to computer software.

Then I stopped researching about swingtum or him.

中文名：潘和平。形势冲。

---CHRISRAO/饶旭东---

CG Capital

The partnership of Gotrock Capital did not work out as we originally expected due to various reasons. We might stop using the company name Gotrock Capital. We may form a new company such as CG Capital in order to manage capital for constant growth.