易经。革卦。49

《易經》 第四十九卦 革 澤火革 兌上離下

革卦来得很快。既有必然的因素，又有偶然的因素。必然的因素来自于在八月中旬在第二道机关里加了两级变化。加上原来的一级，总共三级，以显示八卦的三爻。现在的第二道机关其实就是三足鼎立了，自成体系了。这三足鼎立的三爻虽然相互关联，但实质关系却很小。偶然因素来自于这三足鼎立的第二道机关的时机，刚刚决定加，就显卦了，得革卦。因为时间仓促，所以到今天才有时间来学习革卦。此卦有革言三就之语，看来与我有了三足卜卦的第二道机关有联系。也许是因为我已经有了三足机关，所以才有了革言三就的革卦了。这一点还是臆测，将来才能证实其真实性。

虽然这样一来，卜得新卦的机会增加了，但如何将这两种机关联合起来考虑，却是一个新问题。特别是如果我将第一道机关从一级变化改为六级变化，象征六爻之变，那么如何将这两道机关结合起来考虑，就更因该仔细考虑了。

一种方式是将这两道机关分别考虑。第一道机关产生的是三爻之变的八卦，而第二道机关产生的是六爻之动的六十四卦了。这样一来就产生了两套卦象。另一种方式是将这两道机关产生的三爻或六爻按时间顺序进行组合，这样一来就只有一套卦象了。我觉得第二种方式更符合易经的基本思想。把这两种机关看成是阴阳两极。阴阳交互变化，就会产生三爻之变或六爻之动，就会产生八卦和周易六十四卦。这样一来，过去得到的卦象和将来得到的卦象就会有连续性了。也是这是革卦本来的意思：既变革了方法，又继承了传统。

革，巳日乃孚，元亨利貞，悔亡。《彖》曰：革，水火相息，二女同居，其志不相得，曰革。「巳日乃孚」，革而信也。文明以說，大亨以正，革而當，其悔乃亡。天地革而四時成，湯武革命，順乎天而應乎人，革之時義大矣哉！《象》曰：澤中有火，革。君子以治歷明時。

彖曰水火相息，象曰泽中有火。这些都是在讲革卦的卦象，但这些只是表象，而非实质。我认为，革卦的革字本身就有革卦之象。革字，从卅，三十为一世，而道更也。所以变更之革是引申义。我看革卦之象，有震中之乾象，所以巳日乃孚，元亨利贞。就是说震将孚变为乾，所以才有元亨利贞之实。所以革卦是在讲和平时期的权力移交，而非言世道变更的革命。所以经文：巳日乃孚，元亨利贞，悔亡。其实就是说：巳日变革时机成熟，立长子为君，元亨利贞，将没有悔恨。

初九：鞏用黃牛之革。《象》曰：「鞏用黃牛」，不可以有為也。

六二：巳日乃革之，征吉，無咎。《象》曰：「巳日革之」，行有嘉也。

九三：征凶，貞厲，革言三就，有孚。《象》曰：「革言三就」，又何之矣。

九四：悔亡，有孚改命，吉。《象》曰：改命之吉，信志也。

九五：大人虎變，未占有孚。《象》曰：「大人虎變」，其文炳也。

上六：君子豹變，小人革面，征凶，居貞吉。《象》曰：「君子豹變」，其文蔚也。「小人革面」，順以從君也。

革（四十九）

经文：革：巳日乃孚。元亨利贞，悔亡。
初九：巩用黄牛之革。
六二：巳日乃革之，征吉，无咎。
九三：征凶，贞厉。革言三就，有孚。
九四：悔亡。有孚，改命吉。
九五：大人虎变。未占有孚。
上六：君子豹变，小人革面，征凶。居贞吉。

注释：

①革：卦名。既有去故更新改革变化之意，又有改朝换代之意，故彖传称：汤武革命，顺乎天而应乎人。 ②巳日乃孚：巳即已，乃天干中的第六干，因已日在天干十日中已过半，盛极而衰，正是革命变革的时刻。 ③巩用黄牛之革：用黄牛皮革牢固地捆缚。巩，固。革，皮革。 ④巳日乃革之：到已日就革命变革。 ⑤革言三就：革命变革必须慎重，需经三次讨论才能行动。言，言论、讨论。就，成、合计。亦有释就为处者。 ⑥有孚，改命吉：有诚，改天命则吉。改命，改天命，此指改朝换代。 ⑦大人虎变，未占有孚：革命变革之际在人象老虎般威猛，不必占筮可知有诚。变，亦有说指野兽夏季脱毛，冬季毛又变厚。虎变，乃象老虎换毛一样。 ⑧君子豹变，小人革面：革命变革时，君子象豹子般迅疾，小人被迫革除本来的面目。豹变，如豹之变化。此君子比大人次一等。故大人被喻为虎，君子被喻为豹。豹比老虎次一等。

今译：

经文：革，至已日才有革命的诚心，开始亨通，宜于守正，悔事消亡。
初九：用黄牛皮革牢固地捆缚。
六二：至已日才能施行革命大计，出征吉，无咎灾。
九三：出征凶，占问有危厉，言论须经三次才成。要有诚心。
九四：悔事消亡，有诚，改天命吉。
九五：大人象老虎一样威猛，未占则有诚。
上六：君子象豹子般迅疾小人改变面貌。出征有凶居而不动占之则吉。

Safety of US Treasuries?

Today I realized for the first time that the financial crisis might be mainly a political tool for the political game of stability. Around 1997, the Asia financial crisis was mainly caused by western financial manipulation of the Asia financial systems under the clouds of political stability. At the end, the Asia countries were rubbed financially, but politically, they become more stable.

During the current round of the financial crisis, it was designed by the western countries to take financial gains from China and other developing countries. But the financial calamity did not occur in China or the major developing countries such as India, Brazil, and Russia, or the so-called BRIC countries. It is fully developed in the US and major developed countries such as the European countries. Why has this time the damage mainly occurred in the developed countries?

First, it is due to the massive holdings of US currency by BRIC countries. In this world, the real money has two forms, gold and the US dollars. The price of gold can change wildly depending on the supply and demand of gold. The price of gold is a purely economic phenomenon. The price fluctuation of gold can make money for someone but can destroy wealth for someone else. In the end, or in total, the world wealth as a whole did not increase or decrease due to the price change of gold. But the price change of US dollar will have totally different impacts on people of various countries.

The top 7 major foreign countries/regions hold about 2.3 trillion US dollars, which is about 20% of the US GDP. China alone holds about 1 trillion US dollars in the form of US treasuries. So the damage of US dollar price fluctuation will have impacts to the American and the Chinese at the same time. At one side, the US dollar at one side has similar characteristics of gold; at another side, it is a government tool for adjusting US economic growth. If the price of US dollar devalues (e.g. the government prints more money), the American and the Chinese lose their wealth relative to the rest of the world, or the holders of gold.

If the US borrowing trends before 2007 had continued for another five years, the housing price in the United States would have continued to rise; more people would have borrowed from the banks; more money would have been printed by the government; the Chinese would have owned about 6 trillion US dollars, or about 50% of the US GDP. The two countries would have been combined as one economy, or the Chimerica economy, as been called by some scholars. This trend would not been a good trend for some US interests. So the US governments have to engineering a financial crisis to stop the ballooning debts for the country and its citizens. That is why the governments have hired the most qualified financial crisis engineer Ben Bernanke, who has studied the Great Depression for his entire career before becoming the Fed Chairman. With the careful preparation and fine execution, the current financial crisis is probably at the worst time now. Economic recovery is at the horizon.

If this theory is true, then the financial lending for mortgages will resume. The great borrowing power is one of the main characteristics of the Americans. The governments can fine-tune this power for the short time. But the long term trend will continue as long as the current financial crisis passes. So the integration of the world economy will continue no matter what the US government does in the short term.

For the Chinese side, its strategy is very simple. They will continue to buy US treasuries as long as they can afford, or as long as they keep producing goods to export. In this way, the Chinese bind themselves to the greatest country in the world. If US fail, the US treasuries will fail, then all the wealth the Chinese government have accumulated over the years will vanish. That is OK for the Chinese because it has dreamed about the up-side potential. If the US governments win this financial crisis, the US treasuries will worth more than before because the Chimerica economy is stronger than a single US economy or a single Chinese economy. The US dollars will be accepted by more countries as their reserve currencies.

The Chinese have openly stated many times domestically and internationally that they will diversify their foreign reserve holdings. But they act just in the opposite way, by buying more US treasuries. I do not know if the higher politicians have already made agreements to bind the two economies for the long term. But I can feel that if they have not reached the final agreements, they must be working on such agreements.

If my theory is right, the US currency will become stronger over the long term. The US borrowing trend will grow even bigger. If we assume 50% of the world outside of US use the US dollar as their reserve currency after the current financial crisis, then the US government debt can double its current debt amount without any problem. The current US debt is a little less than 12 trillion dollars. In ten years, the US debt could grow to 24 billion dollars if we assume the growth rate was 6%. Even by then, that 24 billion debt is only 40% of the current world GDP, which is about $60 trillion dollars. Ultimately, if all countries use US currency as their reserve currency, the US debt can grow happily for at least another 30 to 50 years depending on the growth rate of world economy and the inflation rate.

Fifty years is a long time. So the world economy is not without hope. As soon as the world reserve currency is determined, the US currency or some other forms, there will always be a better future, as long as the principle of zero-sum game applies: debt + wealth = zero. The world had no money before it was created by various governments.

周易。履。10

今天得履卦。巽卦时间很短，前后加起来也只有十二天，所以巽卦之风不会久吹不散。风吹完了，要落实到行动上了，所以就有了履卦，要实践所谓的“君子以申命行事”的诺言了。从现在来看，巽卦之风就相当于申命，履卦也许就是行事的果决了。还是先研究履卦的经文和爻辞，看看该如何履行果决了。

履卦的综卦是小畜卦；错卦是谦卦；互卦是家人卦。综是以不同的立场看问题，观点就两样。所以对我来说是履卦，对不同立场的人来说就是小畜卦。错卦是虽然立场和目标一致，但看问题的角度不同，所见也就不同了。所以对我来说是履卦，如果换个角度看同一目标，也许表现出谦卦来了。互卦是从内部来看问题，从表面上看是履卦，从本质来看就是家人卦了。

履卦是实践；小畜卦就是密云不雨，施未行也。履卦是履虎尾；谦卦就是谦谦君子了。履卦也许是表面文章，从本质来看也许是言之有物而行之有恒也。所以履之重要，一言难尽矣。

《易經》 第十卦 履 天澤履 乾上兌下

从卦象来看，履卦是一小女行之于天下。而且小女又履居下卦之极位，虽为人臣，但未免有不中不正之嫌。所以履卦对我而言，有如履薄冰，如临大敌之象也。但毕竟该小女之外，有五条阳爻雄踞在外，象征有阳刚之气保护小女其身，所以小女才会有惊无险。

履，履虎尾，不咥人，亨。《彖》曰：履，柔履剛也。說而應乎乾，是以「履虎尾，不咥人，亨」。剛中正，履帝位而不疚，光明也。《象》曰：上天下澤，履。君子以辨上下，定民志。

因为有履卦之象，所以才能够行于虎尾之后，却没有虎伤其身之险，这样提心吊胆地前行，必将亨通发达。Only the paranoid survive，由此可见，Andy Grove 是真正理解了履卦的深意了。

初九：素履往，無咎。《象》曰：素履之往，獨行愿也。

素就是朴实无华。素履往，就是用一颗朴实无华的心态前行。无咎，就是没有坏处。如果一个人总是以一颗朴实无华的心态处世，那必将没有任何坏处。所以一个人行事，目的性不能太强。如果做事有太强的目的性，就可能带来很多苦恼，特别是在目的没有达到的时候。一个人如果前行的时候，轻装素履，必将会有意想不到的收获。

九二：履道坦坦，幽人貞吉。《象》曰：「幽人貞吉」，中不自亂也。

很多人认为幽人就是囚犯。囚犯从何而来？我觉得幽人就是隐士，指幽雅深邃之人。所以履道平坦之时，要向幽人请教，即向幽雅深邃之人学习，这里的贞字是求教的意思。这样做，就会吉祥。所以九二爻辞就是说，在人生惬意的时候，不要荒废光阴，要向幽雅深邃之人求教学问，这样将吉祥如意。

六三：眇能視，跛能履，履虎尾，咥人，凶。武人為于大君。《象》曰：「眇能視」，不足以有明也。「跛能履」，不足以與行也。咥人之凶，位不當也。「武人為于大君」，志剛也。

很多人把眇和跛解释为残废人士，我觉得不妥，中国文化里的跛鳖千里到哪里去了呢？我觉得眇就是用一只眼睛看，跛就是用一只脚走路，并非指残废人士，而是指骄傲自满之人，这样解释也符合六三爻象。只有这样的人，在履虎尾的时候，才会被虎所咥，所以才有凶险。但是这样的人，若为武人，则是好事。在对待敌人的时候，眇能視，跛能履，就是英勇顽强的象征。这就是说，失去了一只眼睛，断了一只脚，也再所不惜，还继续向前冲，威武杀敌，所以才有武人为于大君。

九四：履虎尾，愬愬，終吉。《象》曰：「愬愬，終吉」，志行也。

这是继续六三爻的谈话，来谈如何正确对待危险关头。愬愬，就是恐惧谨慎的样子。整句就是说，在老虎尾巴后面走路，只要时刻小心翼翼，终将化险为夷，吉祥无害。

所以我认为，六三和九四两爻，是从正反两个方面来说明：履虎尾的态度不同，其结果也将不同；一个是凶，一个是吉。正确对待危险的态度和方法就非常清楚了。在古时候，我想最大的危险莫过于履虎尾了。那履虎尾来比喻危险就再恰当不过了。

九五：夬履，貞厲。《象》曰：「夬履，貞厲」，位正當也。

前面四爻，说明了一个人在平常情况下应该如何履行；也说明了在危险时刻因该如何履行。所以在行至九五之位时，已经有了前面的经验，现在就要善于决断。夬就是决，指果决。所以夬履，就是果断行事。贞厉，就是说这时还在贞占研究，就会反招危害。所以九五爻就是告诫，当胸有成竹之时，就如位居九五之人，要果断行事，当决就决。否则，当决不决，可能自取其辱，甚至反受其害。

上九：視履考祥，其旋元吉。《象》曰：元吉在上，大有慶也。

上九在这个履卦就是指退居到背景的高官。其人生阅历是在身后，这时就要视履考祥，就是要回忆一生的经历，研究考察其原因究竟。这里的祥就是指事情的原委。其旋元吉。元吉就是最大的吉祥。旋就是返回。其旋元吉，就是相当于今天讲的“螺旋式上升”。所以上九爻就是告诫那些已经退下来的，而又身经百战，经验丰富的人士，要将晚年用于总结经验，使人类的知识更上一个台阶，使下一代人有一个更好的起点。

履[简体]（十）

经文：＄履虎尾，不咥人，亨。
初九：素履往，无咎。
九二：履道坦坦，幽人贞吉。
六三：眇能视，跛能履，履虎尾，咥人凶，武人为于大君。
九四：履虎尾。愬愬，终吉。
九五：夬履，贞厉。
上九：视履考祥，其旋元吉。

[山东大学的注释]

(0)履，卦名。帛《易》作“礼”。有践踏/履行之义。
(1)履虎尾：踏老虎尾巴。
(2)不咥人：不咬人。咥，噬/咬。
(3)素履往：穿素色之鞋去，素履，白色无文彩的鞋。
(4)履道坦坦：道路平坦。坦坦，指平坦。
(5)幽人贞吉：囚人占之则吉。幽人，囚人。
(6)眇能视，跛能履：偏盲而视，脚跛而行。眇，偏盲。古能/而互通。
(7)武人为于大君：武人为大君效劳。为，有作为。
(8)愬愬，终吉：虽怀恐惧而最终得吉。愬愬，畏惧貌。
(9)夬履：决然而行。夬，决。
(10)视履考祥：审视其履行，考察其福祸吉凶。
(10+)视，审视。考，考察。祥。福祸。
(11)其旋元吉：只有返回始可得吉。旋，一指周旋、无亏；一指返回。
(12)帛《易》作“＄”。由帛《易》作“＄”知作返回无疑。

[山东大学之今译]

经文：踩老虎尾巴，老虎不咬人，此占亨通。
初九：穿素鞋去，无灾。
九二：道路平坦，囚人占之则吉。
六三：偏盲而视，脚跛而行，踩虎尾，老虎咬人凶。武人为大君报效。
九四：踩老虎尾巴，恐惧而最终得吉。
九五：决然而行，占之将有危厉。
上九：审视其履行，考察其福祸吉凶，只有返回始可得吉。