Local Stock Gurus on 2007 Investing
Rujing called for a meeting about stocks at Escape. When I got there Rujing was the only one there. I was about a few minutes late already. Later one Olina, Max, and William came for the meeting. I felt that everyone enjoyed the meeting. The discussions were great. The difference in opinions was as many as the number of participants.
Rujing had quite a few ideas about the stocks and energy. His thought about oil was very interesting. Generally, the oil price will dip to about $42 per barrel by the middle of the year. Next year, the oil price will advance to about $100 per barrel. If that’s case, there is tremendous profit potential if one can play this volatility right. He offered his idea about the interest rate. The discount will be raised by the Fed in next meetings. Ultimately it will rise at about 6%. That means that the Fed will increase the rate three times if the 25 basis points raise is continued in the future. His view about the stock market was very negative. Most of the stock sectors are over-valued, especially the technology sector. The only industries he likes are the wind-energy related companies and the medical technology companies. He mentioned his current positions of investments. Majority is cash and with some short positions.
Max was in generally disagreement with Rujing with one exception about energy. Max thought ExxonMobil had been right many time in the past in timing the oil market. Over the last several years, ExxonMobil did not add any major oil assets because the company thought the oil price about $50 could not be sustainable. Basically Max confirmed the Rujing’s bearishness on the oil price in the near future. Another thought about the geopolitical speculation of the potential US-Iran war. Rujing thought the US-Iran war is very possible. Max thought the war potential was none. William and Max thought that there was a potential for Israel to invade Iran if conditions were ripe because that Iran had views about eliminating Israel from the Middle East.
William’s current concentration is the International market. His performance was very good. He was a little bit worried about the potential bubble in the Chinese stock market. It seemed that Max and Rujing were in agreement with William on this point. Max even offered a potential situation that the bullishness could be extended to 2008 when Olympics would take place then. Basically they thought the Chinese government had great influence and control over the stock market.
Olina was talking about her concentration of investment on exchange-related stocks like the NYSE and CME. She said that the market had very little to do with the companies she had watched and traded. In some days when the market was down, her positions could be mostly positive. Rujing thought the exchange-related companies were over-valued since the transaction price had been in the downward direction. Ultimately the exchange-related companies would come down to realty. Max and William seemed that the bullishness could be sustained for an extended period of time. William thought NYSE was one of the best stocks to invest. As long as people trade stocks, NYSE will continue to make money.
I felt that the stock market was undervalued at least 30% at the current corporate erning rates. I also believed that investing in energy now would produce a great average entry price so that the return could be significant if what Rujing said wouold come true in the coming years.
William had to leave for his next activity. Then everyone was ready to leave. Every left around 6:30 p.m. The meeting might have started by 4:00 p.m. So the 2.5-hour meeting was productive and interesting. Several other invited gusts were not present in the meeting.
Rujing had quite a few ideas about the stocks and energy. His thought about oil was very interesting. Generally, the oil price will dip to about $42 per barrel by the middle of the year. Next year, the oil price will advance to about $100 per barrel. If that’s case, there is tremendous profit potential if one can play this volatility right. He offered his idea about the interest rate. The discount will be raised by the Fed in next meetings. Ultimately it will rise at about 6%. That means that the Fed will increase the rate three times if the 25 basis points raise is continued in the future. His view about the stock market was very negative. Most of the stock sectors are over-valued, especially the technology sector. The only industries he likes are the wind-energy related companies and the medical technology companies. He mentioned his current positions of investments. Majority is cash and with some short positions.
Max was in generally disagreement with Rujing with one exception about energy. Max thought ExxonMobil had been right many time in the past in timing the oil market. Over the last several years, ExxonMobil did not add any major oil assets because the company thought the oil price about $50 could not be sustainable. Basically Max confirmed the Rujing’s bearishness on the oil price in the near future. Another thought about the geopolitical speculation of the potential US-Iran war. Rujing thought the US-Iran war is very possible. Max thought the war potential was none. William and Max thought that there was a potential for Israel to invade Iran if conditions were ripe because that Iran had views about eliminating Israel from the Middle East.
William’s current concentration is the International market. His performance was very good. He was a little bit worried about the potential bubble in the Chinese stock market. It seemed that Max and Rujing were in agreement with William on this point. Max even offered a potential situation that the bullishness could be extended to 2008 when Olympics would take place then. Basically they thought the Chinese government had great influence and control over the stock market.
Olina was talking about her concentration of investment on exchange-related stocks like the NYSE and CME. She said that the market had very little to do with the companies she had watched and traded. In some days when the market was down, her positions could be mostly positive. Rujing thought the exchange-related companies were over-valued since the transaction price had been in the downward direction. Ultimately the exchange-related companies would come down to realty. Max and William seemed that the bullishness could be sustained for an extended period of time. William thought NYSE was one of the best stocks to invest. As long as people trade stocks, NYSE will continue to make money.
I felt that the stock market was undervalued at least 30% at the current corporate erning rates. I also believed that investing in energy now would produce a great average entry price so that the return could be significant if what Rujing said wouold come true in the coming years.
William had to leave for his next activity. Then everyone was ready to leave. Every left around 6:30 p.m. The meeting might have started by 4:00 p.m. So the 2.5-hour meeting was productive and interesting. Several other invited gusts were not present in the meeting.
posted by Unknown at 7:07 PM
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