Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Mythical Number 7

There are many mythical numbers. One of the most intriguing numbers is the number seven (7). I feel this number is very often used in daily life. There are 7 days in a week. There is the 7-year itch. Mao once said there would be a cultural revolution in 7 or 8 years. In casinos, the number 7 appears in many slot machines.

The number 7 is often associated with bad lucks. The number 13 is often associated with bad lucks as well. I was thinking about how to relate these two numbers. I came up with the following mathematical equation:

X = B^X

Where B is the bad luck number 1.313131313…, X is the value to be sought for. When I solve this equation, I have obtained two answers: X1 = 1.5080, X2 = 7.2944.

Since I am interested in the stock market, I feel that the above two values for X are very useful reference for conservative investors. One way to interpret the two values is to see them as the bound for investment goals. For the short-term, to obtain an average return on investment at 31% per year for 1.5 years is a reasonable goal. For the longer term, it might be too much an extravaganza if one seeks to achieve above 31% return annually for more than 7.3 years.

Recently, there are two people in the local Dallas Chinese community who promote investment vehicles with expected returns above 50% per year. Many frieds of mine have asked me about my opinions about these returns. I thought these returns might be very difficult to maintain for the long term.

I thought this was interesting so that I kept a record here.

Friday, May 04, 2007

3S in Golf: Skill Strategy & Spirit

I am a beginner golf player. I do not have enough experiences to summarize the fundamentals of playing golf. Based on the limited time I have played golf, I have concluded that there are three critical components in playing golf well. I say they are the three-S: skills, strategies, and spirits.

I have checked out the average scores for Tiger Woods. His driving distance is about 300 yards, which is short of the best drivers. His iron playing is not the best. His putting is even far from the best. But I think he is the overall best player in the world. Why is this true in the golf world? It is because the skills are only one of the three components for playing golf well.

Skills are the technical mastering of the physical movements of swings, driving, chipping, pitching, and putting. All these skills are critical. In driving range, around the chipping green, and on the putting green, all golfers have to train themselves these skills.
The second critical component is strategy. Strategies are critical because there are so many variations in any golf courses. They are the overall landscape conditions, slopes of the hills, water ways and water bodies, sand traps or bunkers. Some fairways are long while the others are short. Some fairways are narrow while the others are wide. All these course physical conditions should be optimally combined with the golf players’ skills. At the same spots, the best clubs for the low-handicapped players might be using drivers while for the high-handicapped players might be using irons. So from the teeing-off to the last putt, the golfers should have a strategy for the current step and an overall strategy for the entire hole. It would be disastrous for a high-handicapped player to emulate the masters on strategic bases.

The third component is the spirit of playing golf. I feel that the most critical spirit for playing golf is keeping centered. Any target setting for each hole can be detrimental for playing golf well. With the skill level and the strategy already in mind, the only thing left in the mind is to swing the club as we have done it a thousand times. Too much happiness after playing a hole well can be the cause of the next bad hole. Too much sadness of playing a hole bad can be the cause of the next several bad holes. I feel that the best state of mind is the mind of expecting nothing.