Tuesday, March 20, 2007

把尊严放进冰激凌

This was an email message I received on April-20-2006. I thought it was a very nice story.

每天晚上下班之后,我都有半个小时的时间在父亲的冷饮店里帮忙。有一天我偶然发现橱窗外有一双眼睛,那是一个十一二岁小男孩的眼睛。他盯着店里其他买冰激凌吃的孩子,一脸羡慕。我把这件事告诉了父亲。父亲看了看那个小男孩,没有做声。我对父亲说:可怜的孩子一定想吃冰激凌,却没有钱,我可以送一盒给他吃吗?但父亲冷漠的摇了摇头。之后的一天,当其他孩子散去后,我突然看到父亲对哪个站在窗外的孩子招手示意。男孩近来了。父亲对他说:孩子,你可以为我到隔壁的报亭买一份报纸吗?孩子点点头,很快,他就把报纸买回来了。这时,父亲微笑着从冷柜里拿出一盒冰激凌递给了孩子。孩子高兴地接过了冰激凌,说了声谢谢。不要谢我,这是你应得的报酬!父亲对孩子说,你能每天都来帮我买份报纸吗?酬劳是每次一盒冰激凌。孩子兴奋的点点头,孩子一定吃的很香甜,因为父亲在冰激凌里放进了尊严。

社会学

This was written on Feb-8-2006. I was deleting old email messages today. I discovered this email message. I thought it was nice to keep it as a record.

这学期的社会学课程对我来说是全新的。以前听说过这门学问。有一堂课讲到人的社会关系。我总结一下其大概意思如下: 社会学认为人的思想来自于人的社会关系。人的社会关系概括起来有五种:

1。一对一关系:这类关系包括所有一对一的关系,如父子,夫妻,兄弟,姊妹,师生,等等。2。家庭关系:这类关系包括家庭成员之间的关系,包括小家庭和大家庭。3。正式组织关系:如学校,公司,部队,等等。这类关系一般有法律约束。4。集体关系:这类关系包括人的正常活动范围内的关系,如乡亲,同事, 同乡,同学,牌友,棋友, 等等。5。社会关系:这是人的最大关系网络,如政治关系,风俗习惯,道德标准,知识,等等。

这五种关系对人的影响都很重要。人的思想基本是此人生随着时间过程的积累。人生下来时本无思想。思想是在人与人,人与家庭,人与组织,人于集体, 人与社会交往过程中逐渐学来的。

中国古话---近朱者赤,近墨者黑---大概就是这个意思。

我认为书里有所有的的社会关系。人与人交往之外,人还可以与书里的人交往。读书,在某种意义上,其实是在与写书的人交往。所以,一个人的性情,既与其所处的社会环境有关,也与其所读的书有关。

何为思想?思乃心上的田野。想乃心上的对相。

Monday, March 19, 2007

Private Equity Powerhouses

Recently, there are lots of interests in the private capital groups. Fortress Investment Group had an IPO a few weeks ago. Now, investors are preparing to welcome the IPO of the Blackstone Group. Here I have selected 12 major powerhouses in this category.

The Blackstone Group
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company
The Carlyle Group
Texas Pacific Group
Bain Capital
Providence Equity Partners
Apollo Advisors
Warburg Pincus
Cerberus
Thomas H. Lee
Fortress Investment Group
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers

Friday, March 16, 2007

Worley Parsons

Houston based SEA Engineering was acquired by Worley Parsons (http://www.worleyparsons.com), an Australia based engineering company specialized in resources and energy developments. The announcement was made January 25, 2007. The acquisition price is approximately 25 million US dollars. There were 150 employees at the time of acquisition. Revenue for the 2006 calendar year was approximately 26.5 million dollars.

Monday, March 12, 2007

黄河演变与人类文明

中华民族的文明与黄河有一种特殊的关系。从大禹治水到毛主席的要把黄河的事情办好。治理黄河与历代君王也是息息相关。黄河从过去的三年两缺口到最近的六十多年未缺口。几千年的黄河演变好象给我们有一种启示。人类社会与自然世界的关系在发生巨大的变化。人类社会的能力与自然世界的物力几乎达到了同一个数量级。

从诺亚方舟里洪水到现代的大型水利枢纽工程所能控制的洪水已经不可同日而语了。洪水对人类的威胁已经减少到了可以容忍的程度。对洪水的控制与否已经只是一个经济问题了。

人类对生活环境的自然条件也有了极大的降低。在过去的一百年中发展最快的美国城市是拉斯维加斯。 这在一百年前是无法想象的。中东的迪拜已经发展成为世界最发达的城市之一。人类对生活环境的自然条件最重要的水的要求已经降低到了最低的程度。拉斯维加斯用地下几千尺的井水。迪拜则可以利用去盐的海水。

水太多(洪水)已经不是问题。水太少(沙漠)也不是问题。人类对水的要求是如此。人类社会对自然界的其它要求亦是如此。

从另外一个角度看。人类社会已经能够将自然界的巨大变化调节到人类可以容忍的程度。人与自然的关系是如此。人与人类社会的关系亦是如此。一个国家的经济总量(国民收入)的变化是如此。通货膨胀的变化是如此。金融市场的变化是如此。股票市场的变化亦是如此。

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Golf Swing and Tempo

The basic knowledge about golf swing learned from the last several months is becoming more and more obvious in practice. The basic rules of a good swing may include balanced and stable stance, straight back, eyes on the ball, and no head-turning and sufficient follow-through.

One critical part I learned new in the past week is club head turning. Jie checked out an instruction video from the city library about golf. This instruction video stressed that there was no perfect swing. Golfers have put too much emphasis on the golf swings. In stead, the golfers should pay more attentions to basic instincts without thinking too much about swings. I felt that the teaching was interesting. But it did help me understand the physics of the golf swing.

Actually there are two swings at the same time. One swing is the shaft swing. The shaft is an extension of our arm length. Another swing is the club face swing, which is an extension of our palms. The shaft swing before hitting the golf ball is about 180 degrees. The club face (for the iron) can add additional 180 degrees of turning. I tried to incorporate this understanding into my practice. It seemed the driving distance could be increased. At least I could feel the additional power of the impact when hitting the ball if the turning of club face was done correctly.

I did try a simple calculation to see if the secondary club-face turning could add additional distance to the strike. If we assume the speed of the shaft (plus the arm length) is ω with L as the length while the club-face turning speed is ω with the small length l. The total speed is then V = ω (L + l). Suppose l/L = 6%. Then the swing speed can be increased by 5%. However, the fly distance of golf ball is proportional to V to the 3/2 power. Then the distance can be increased by 9%. For a 5-Iron, the normal driving distance is 170 yards. A 9% increase in distance would make that to 185 yard. That is 15 yards additional distance without forcing a more powerful swing.

Another feel I had learned in the last week was that the stance had to be stable until the down-swing had begun. During the entire back-swing (preparing for the down-swing) I have to keep my stance stable without moving my lower body sideways or up/down. From the beginning of the down-swing, my body turns together with my arms. That is the time when I can release my stable stance with the turning move of my right leg. So the right leg is pulled away by the moving arms and body. That is the time I can feel the powerful swing. This might be what they call tempo. I could not say I have fully mastered this tempo, but I can say that I start to get the feel of it.

RSP Potential Patterns in 2007

In the last week, the global equity markets had some gyrations in prices. One of the most concerned ETFs for me is RSP, the equal-weighted stock index fund. I trade it at 2% intervals, it did not stop going up from mid-August, 2006 until late-February, 2007. I did not have a single buy opportunity after nine sales until last week when I had three purchases and one sale.

Based on this disconnected pattern of trading in RSP, I am wondering if the US equity market has another 6% to 8% downward pressure in the coming months to make the connection with the mid-May, 2006 high. The total correction would be around 12%. This means that the Dow has to come down to around 11,500 for this connection in the next few months, say until late April.

Suppose the summer months of May through August will be flat, we still have four months left to recover this correction for the year. If the year is a normal year with a 10% return, now it is still a good time to invest even if there is a 6% to 8% downward potential. I expect RSP will reach above $52.00 by the year-end.